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Pulse Market Insight #267 JAN 17 2025 | Producers | Pulse Market Insights

Update on Seasonal Price Patterns

This is normally a quieter time of year for grain markets, although this year could be a little more “interesting” due to the potential fallout from decisions in Washington, Beijing and New Delhi. Pulse markets certainly aren’t immune from geopolitics, with tariff decisions pending in India and the US.

At the same time, the usual supply and demand dynamics are still influencing pulse markets. Over time, the behaviour of sellers and buyers during the various seasons of the year tends to be fairly similar, which gives rise to seasonal price patterns. This adds some predictability to price direction and timing but doesn’t provide much information about the size of the moves, either higher or lower. And in years that prices don’t follow the “normal” patterns, that’s also a useful market signal of something unusual happening.

In 2024, pea prices tended to follow the seasonal patterns fairly closely. That was more noticeable for green peas which mirrored the price index, with respect to timing and direction. For yellow peas, it wasn’t as clear but it still happened. Partly that’s because the wide scale on the chart’s price axis obscured the move in yellow peas. The typical fall recovery in yellow pea prices wasn’t as large as the postharvest bounce in green peas and stalled out sooner too.

Looking ahead to 2025, the seasonal patterns suggest prices for both yellow and green peas will mostly move sideways. Of course, the status of Indian tariffs could cause a shift higher or lower for yellow peas, depending on the outcome. Green pea prices have been supported in 2024/25 by limited supplies and that influence could shift the price line higher. At the same time though, there is a point in the year when prices head lower, and that’s a very consistent pattern for prices of all crops.

The seasonal price patterns for lentils generally follow the same shape as the ones for peas. There are some differences though, even between green lentils and red lentils. Red lentils don’t show as much of a postharvest price recovery with the ultimate highs typically not showing up until late spring. The green lentil seasonal index shows a stronger recovery after harvest and a clearer peak in the fall. Again, the scale of the price axis on the chart and the wide spread between green and red lentil prices obscure how closely the prices seem to follow the patterns. In reality, red lentil bids in 2024 did follow the seasonal tendency fairly closely; it’s just that price moves were less extreme than greens.

Over the next few months, the seasonal charts suggest that both red and green lentil bids could be flat to even softer but would start to strengthen in late March or early April. But as with all crops, prices have a strong tendency to decline, once late May or early June roll around.

Again, we repeat that prices don’t follow their seasonal index every year, but in most years when supply and demand are fairly well-balanced, the connection is the closest. It’s because of these tendencies that farmers shouldn’t be surprised when prices drop in summer. By the same token, they shouldn’t get too bullish when prices start to turn higher after harvest. That’s simply what prices do (almost every year).

Pulse Market Insight provides market commentary from Chuck Penner of LeftField Commodity Research to help with pulse marketing decisions.