Pulse Crop Conditions & Yield Guesses
Let’s be honest, when trying to figure out crop yields, there’s always plenty of guesswork involved. There are lots of information sources, including 60-mph crop tours, reports from people in the field, satellite vegetation maps, comparisons to previous years and provincial crop reports. Each one has its place and we try to incorporate them all when coming up with our own yield guesses.
The provincial crop reports are one of the more useful sources. In part, that’s because they’ve been around for quite a while, which allows for year-to-year comparisons. They also use a consistent approach each year and cover a lot of ground; I could spend my whole summer driving all over the prairies each week and still wouldn’t be able to reach all the areas covered by the crop reporters. Just like StatsCan’s numbers, the crop reports aren’t perfect, but they provide some valuable input.
There have been a lot of ups and downs in prairie weather so far this summer, with some areas experiencing more downs than ups. Overall though, one theme we’ve been hearing fairly often is that pulses are handling this year’s weather better than most other crops. While there are some trouble spots, disease seems to be less of an issue than the last few years and cooler temperatures this July are positive for pulses in the blooming and podding stages.
These reports we’re getting from the field are confirmed by the ratings in Alberta and Sask Ag crop reports, which show improvements in the last few weeks. In Alberta, the pea crop ratings have moved higher and are now at 65% good or excellent, slightly ahead of the 10-year average while in Saskatchewan, the good/exc rating has improved to 73%, well above the average. Keep in mind, the “average” line on the chart shows that ratings tend to head lower during the summer season and the fact that ratings are rising this year is a more important signal than the absolute number.

Early in the growing season, we use an olympic average yield which looks at the five last years, tossing out the high and the low yield. For 2025, this olympic average yield for peas is 35.0 bu/acre. Earlier, StatsCan showed a 9% expansion in seeded area and together with this average yield, production would come in at 3.28 mln tonnes, compared to 3.00 mln last year. If we plug in a 7.5% yield increase for peas, production would end up at 3.51 mln tonnes, 500,000 tonnes larger than last year. That production increase could make supplies feel quite heavy, especially with questions/concerns about 2025/26 export demand.
It’s a similar picture for lentils on the prairies; conditions are improving as of mid-July, rather than declining like they normally do. Crop ratings for both Saskatchewan (68% good/exc) and Alberta (66% good/exc) are both well above the 10-year average for this time of year.

These above-average and improving crop ratings suggest the overall 2025 lentil yield could be higher than the olympic average of 1,213 pounds (20.2 bushels) per acre. Keep in mind though, front-line reports are telling us that lentils grown further south, where green lentil acreage is concentrated, are in rougher shape than those in central areas, where more reds are grown. That’s similar to last year’s situation, when red lentils performed much better than greens. Still, it seems reasonable to peg the overall yield at 5% above average, which would mean a 2025 lentil crop of 2.49 mln tonnes, 3% more than last year.
Normally, we’re hesitant to start adjusting yields too early in the season but by now, that potential is becoming more certain. Some areas are certainly very dry but forecasts for mild or even cool temperatures over the next week or 10 days will help reduce moisture stress. Bigger pulse yields in 2025 would be good to see but might also suggest a review of next year’s marketing plan.

Pulse Market Insight provides market commentary from Chuck Penner of LeftField Commodity Research to help with pulse marketing decisions.