Indian Market Update

With all the other things going on in pulse markets, the situation in India has almost faded into the background, but it remains a critical part of the outlook. India’s rabi harvest includes lentils, peas and chickpeas and is now in its late stages. The outcome of this rabi crop is one of the key factors in the Indian government’s decisions about allowing or restricting imports.

Earlier in March, Indian Ag Ministry released its first estimates of the 2025 rabi harvest, which showed modest increases for all three pulse crops that are important to the Canadian market. In this report, the government’s initial estimates are based on average yields and this year, that’s a reasonable assumption. Growing conditions have been generally favourable across most producing areas of India, which should put average yields within reach.

Production of gram (desi and kabuli chickpeas) was reported at 11.54 mln tonnes, up 4.5% from last year but still lower than the 5-year average of 11.97 mln tonnes. The lentil (red) crop was pegged at 1.82 mln tonnes, which would be only 1.5% better than last year but well above the 5-year average of 1.44 mln tonnes. Pea production is not broken out separately and is included with “other rabi pulses” and that category was reported at 1.90 mln tonnes, 6.7% larger than last year.

As with any government crop estimates, there’s always plenty of disagreement about the numbers. For the last few years, private estimates in India have been consistently lower than the government numbers, often by a lot, and this year is no exception. These sources suggest the chickpea crop is too large by at least a million tonnes, if not more. For lentils, the differences are 200-300,000 tonnes. If domestic production really is lower, the Indian government might need to rethink its import tariffs in the coming months, depending on supply levels and prices.

For now though and regardless of the exact number, the Indian government is already making moves to limit imports. Earlier, an 11% tariff was imposed on lentil imports and this week, a 10% tariff was placed on chickpea imports. Tariffs at these levels won’t stop imports but will make them more expensive and are intended to support prices for Indian farmers. Unfortunately, they also tend to lower prices for farmers in exporting countries. That became clear when Canadian lentil prices dropped as soon as Indian tariffs were imposed.

There is still no word on Indian tariffs on pea imports, with that deadline pushed back to May 31. That said, the fact that a tariff was placed on desi chickpea imports and Indian pea prices are at multiyear lows suggest a tariff on peas is certainly possible after that deadline. If it does happen, that’s another serious roadblock for the Canadian pea market.

Indian imports of peas have already declined in recent months as inventories built up in port warehouses. Large import volumes aren’t expected, even if tariffs stay at zero. Still, with the loss of the Chinese market, any further decline in demand isn’t helpful. There was a bump in India’s red lentil imports from Australia earlier but that surge is already fading. The 11% tariffs will still allow Canadian lentils to trade into India, but at a lower price. The situation can always change, especially if the Indian government is overestimating rabi pulse production and needs to reverse its tariff decisions. But if that doesn’t happen, Canadian pea and lentil exporters will need to look for other destinations, adding another challenge for 2025/26.

Pulse Market Insight provides market commentary from Chuck Penner of LeftField Commodity Research to help with pulse marketing decisions.