Drawing Down Pulse Stocks Will Take Time
It’s no secret that Canadian pulse crops were big in 2025. While pulse yields didn’t set new records like a few other crops, the pea yield of 42.3 bu/acre was 7½ bushels more than the year before and 26% above the 5-year average. The 2025 lentil yield of 1,721 lb/acre was up 440 pounds from the previous year and 45% above average while the chickpea yield was 1,970 lb/acre, 650 pounds more than 2024 and a whopping 56% above the average.
For all three pulse crops, seeded area was higher in 2025 than 2024, compounding the big crop “problem”. While not everyone got the high yields, the big inventories in farmers’ bins are evidence of the heavy supply situation facing pulse markets in 2025/26. Total supplies of pulses (not including dry beans) in 2025/26 are a new record, just over 9.0 mln tonnes. That’s 2.6 mln tonnes (40%) more than a year ago.
It wasn’t just the big 2025 crops that caused the buildup in supplies; stocks at the end of 2024/25 were already feeling “comfortable” for all three pulse crops. When those stocks were carried over into 2025/26 and added to last year’s big production, supplies ballooned.
The feeling of “heaviness” in the market varies between pulses and even within pulse types. For example, production of green and maple peas expanded more than yellows in 2025 and those two classes are looking a bit more burdensome than yellows. The green lentil crop, especially small greens, grew a lot more than reds, creating more of a “problem” with green lentils.
On the plus side, pulse exports in 2025/26 have been showing some positive signs. Pea exports are starting to pick up again now that the Chinese government has announced a drop in tariffs. Movement of lentils has been positive all year, with more signs of fresh demand in the last few weeks. And chickpea exports have picked up considerably this year, with volumes in November the highest in years.
Of course, stronger export demand is stimulated by low prices, which is part of normal market behaviour. When supplies are heavy and prices are low, demand tends to pick up and eventually draw down those heavy supplies. That isn’t always a quick process though.
One way to measure the heaviness of supplies is the stocks-to-use ratio. This is calculated by dividing the July 31 ending stocks of a crop by the amount of total usage (exports and domestic consumption). The higher the percentage, the heavier a crop’s supplies are, relatively speaking.
When we look at peas for example, the 5-year average stocks-to-use ratio is 14% and in 2024/25, that moved up to 17%. The big jump in 2025/26 was mainly caused by the much larger crop. Our forecast for 2026/27 includes a drop in pea acreage and a return to average yields but even then, the 2026/27 stocks-to-use ratio only declines to 24%, still on the comfortable side.
For lentils, the stocks-to-use ratio was already signaling heavier supplies in 2024/25, well above the 5-year average but in 2025/26, that spiked to 63%. Next year, even with a forecast of fewer acres and average yields together with solid exports, the stocks-to-use ratio will remain elevated.
The stocks-to-use ratio for chickpeas dropped in 2024/25 but shot higher in 2025/26. And the situation may not improve in 2026/27, even if yields drop back to average and acres slip a bit. Those heavy stocks carried over from 2025/26 will keep next year’s supplies very heavy.
That’s not to say the large supplies won’t allow prices to improve at all. We’ve already seen some gains in pea prices (even before China’s reentry into the market) and red lentil bids are starting to edge higher as well. Rather, the heaviness will limit the potential gains that tend to show up seasonally (for some crops) in spring as well as price potential in 2026/27.
Pulse Market Insight provides market commentary from Chuck Penner of LeftField Commodity Research to help with pulse marketing decisions.