New-Crop Price Patterns

Seasonal price behaviour is an important signal for market timing and direction; we talk about it a lot. Our analysis so far though has only looked at seasonal patterns for spot (nearby) prices, but we were challenged to see what happens with new-crop bids in the lead-up to the next marketing year. We also wanted to see whether there are differences between the patterns for old-crop and new-crop bids at this time of year, either in terms of timing or direction.

We calculated average new-crop bids over the last nine years, which provide a reasonable view of seasonal price behaviour. These historical patterns may not apply every year, but they do reflect “normal” or typical pattern during the forward-contracting period from January to July.

When we compare prices for new-crop delivery with spot bids during the Jan-Jul timeframe, new-crop bids are almost always lower than old-crop; that’s hardly a surprise. Toward the end of the Jan-Jul time period, old-crop and new-crop bids tend to converge. Again, that’s expected, but the price movements that cause the convergence are different for various crops. In some cases, most of the move is caused by declines in old-crop bids while for other crops, the convergence occurs as new-crop bids rise. Most times though, old-crop and new-crop bids move somewhere toward the middle.

The comparison for yellow peas shows the average new-crop bid tends to rise from the beginning of January and peak in the second half of May. Over the last nine years, the peak of the new-crop bid has been, on average, 10% higher than the beginning of January. The old-crop bid doesn’t show a meaningful increase. On average, the old-crop bid starts to decline earlier, around late May while the new-crop bid only starts to turn lower in early July. Early in the season, the spread between average old-crop and new-crop yellow pea bids is quite wide, starting at $1.75 per bushel and remains large through most of the timeframe. The convergence between old-crop and new-crop bids is largely caused by declines in the old-crop, although both slip lower later in the season.

Both old-crop and new-crop red lentil bids show similar patterns. The average new-crop bid is roughly flat until early March and rises to a peak in mid-May before starting to head lower again late in the season. From the beginning of January, the peak in the average new-crop red lentil bid is 11% higher. The average old-crop bid shows a more pronounced decline in the first few months of the calendar year but then turns higher to peak in late April. By early June, it turns sharply lower. Both old-crop and new-crop tend to peak at roughly the same time of the year. At the beginning of January, the spread between average old-crop and new-crop red lentil bids is 5.1 cents per pound, which essentially disappears by the end of July. Although both old-crop and new-crop average bids decline late in the season, the sharper drop-off for old-crop bids drive the move toward convergence.

Prices tend to follow seasonal tendencies most closely in a non-extreme years. In 2025, several crop markets are currently experiencing extreme events and uncertainty, although not so much due to the weather. Tariffs on pulses mean that prices aren’t as connected to the usual supply and demand factors. Because of this year’s significant market interference, the seasonally-based patterns may not have quite the same usefulness as they would in a more “normal” year.

Pulse Market Insight provides market commentary from Chuck Penner of LeftField Commodity Research to help with pulse marketing decisions.