StatsCan Pulse Acreage Numbers (Mostly) Not Surprising

The first official forecasts of 2026 seeded area were recently issued by StatsCan, with some “interesting” estimates for a few crops. For pulse crops though, most of the acreage numbers weren’t really out of line with expectations.

It’s important to note that even though StatsCan’s estimates were issued in early March, they were based on a farmer survey that occurred between mid-December and mid-January. Since that survey, there have been sizable market developments that could influence acreage decisions. That said, crop rotations are largely fixed and a portion of the acreage was already decided back in December. But there is still room for some late tweaking around the margins.

The most noteworthy event was the announcement by the Chinese government to scale back or eliminate import tariffs on canola seed, canola meal and peas, which injected more optimism into those markets. This development added some support for prices which could, in turn, shift a few more acres in that direction. Prices for other crops like barley, wheat and red lentils are moving higher seasonally, which could also make those look a bit more attractive.

For the most part though, StatsCan’s estimates a pulse crop acreage seem to be within reason. Seeded area of peas was reported at 3.08 mln acres, 12% less than last year and in line with the average trade guess. Both yellow and green pea prices are lower than a year ago, but the decline is sharper for green peas, which could discourage a few more of those acres. But as mentioned above, more certainty with respect to exports to China could bring a few more peas, particularly yellows, back into rotations.

Fewer acres of peas along with a return to an average yield would mean the 2026 crop could shrink by over a million tonnes. This should help ease the heavy supply situation to some degree but wouldn’t make things “tight”. The old-crop carryover from 2025/26 is expected to be historically large and offset much of a reduction in the 2026 crop.

StatsCan also showed a decline in 2026 lentil acreage, although not to the same extent as peas. Seeded area was reported at 4.14 mln acres, 5.5% lower than last year but above the average trade guess of 3.9 mln acres. This reduction would be fairly modest and leave lentil acreage in line with the 5-year average. While StatsCan doesn’t provide a breakdown by type in this report, we would expect a shift to red lentils, back to a more typical two-thirds share of acreage. This would mean a larger cut in green lentil acres, which the market definitely needs.

Just like peas, fewer lentil acres and a drop back to the average yield would mean a large decline in the size of the 2026 crop, a step in the right direction for a heavily-supplied market. That said, most of that production loss would be offset by the large old-crop carryover from 2025/26, with an emphasis on green lentil supplies.

Chickpeas are the exception in StatsCan’s lower estimates of pulse acreage. Seeded area is forecast at 575,000 acres, 6% more than last year. Even with more acres, a drop back to the average yield would mean a noticeably smaller crop in 2026. But the recurring theme of heavy supplies will also limit the impact of a smaller chickpea crop, with the very large old-crop carryover from 2025/26 resulting in even larger supplies next year. Export demand has been strong for chickpeas, but that may not be enough to keep supplies from feeling heavy again in 2026/27.

StatsCan’s estimate of dry bean acres was a bit puzzling, showing a 31% drop at 295,000 acres. That would be the lowest total since 2015. While prices for pinto and black beans are currently low, we’re skeptical that seeded area will decline that much, partly because StatsCan’s coverage of dry beans has been “patchy” in the past. Seeded area will likely be lower, but not by that much.

Pulse Market Insight provides market commentary from Chuck Penner of LeftField Commodity Research to help with pulse marketing decisions.

Drawing Down Pulse Stocks Will Take Time

It’s no secret that Canadian pulse crops were big in 2025. While pulse yields didn’t set new records like a few other crops, the pea yield of 42.3 bu/acre was 7½ bushels more than the year before and 26% above the 5-year average. The 2025 lentil yield of 1,721 lb/acre was up 440 pounds from the previous year and 45% above average while the chickpea yield was 1,970 lb/acre, 650 pounds more than 2024 and a whopping 56% above the average.

For all three pulse crops, seeded area was higher in 2025 than 2024, compounding the big crop “problem”. While not everyone got the high yields, the big inventories in farmers’ bins are evidence of the heavy supply situation facing pulse markets in 2025/26. Total supplies of pulses (not including dry beans) in 2025/26 are a new record, just over 9.0 mln tonnes. That’s 2.6 mln tonnes (40%) more than a year ago.

It wasn’t just the big 2025 crops that caused the buildup in supplies; stocks at the end of 2024/25 were already feeling “comfortable” for all three pulse crops. When those stocks were carried over into 2025/26 and added to last year’s big production, supplies ballooned.

The feeling of “heaviness” in the market varies between pulses and even within pulse types. For example, production of green and maple peas expanded more than yellows in 2025 and those two classes are looking a bit more burdensome than yellows. The green lentil crop, especially small greens, grew a lot more than reds, creating more of a “problem” with green lentils.

On the plus side, pulse exports in 2025/26 have been showing some positive signs. Pea exports are starting to pick up again now that the Chinese government has announced a drop in tariffs. Movement of lentils has been positive all year, with more signs of fresh demand in the last few weeks. And chickpea exports have picked up considerably this year, with volumes in November the highest in years.

Of course, stronger export demand is stimulated by low prices, which is part of normal market behaviour. When supplies are heavy and prices are low, demand tends to pick up and eventually draw down those heavy supplies. That isn’t always a quick process though.

One way to measure the heaviness of supplies is the stocks-to-use ratio. This is calculated by dividing the July 31 ending stocks of a crop by the amount of total usage (exports and domestic consumption). The higher the percentage, the heavier a crop’s supplies are, relatively speaking.

When we look at peas for example, the 5-year average stocks-to-use ratio is 14% and in 2024/25, that moved up to 17%. The big jump in 2025/26 was mainly caused by the much larger crop. Our forecast for 2026/27 includes a drop in pea acreage and a return to average yields but even then, the 2026/27 stocks-to-use ratio only declines to 24%, still on the comfortable side.

For lentils, the stocks-to-use ratio was already signaling heavier supplies in 2024/25, well above the 5-year average but in 2025/26, that spiked to 63%. Next year, even with a forecast of fewer acres and average yields together with solid exports, the stocks-to-use ratio will remain elevated.

The stocks-to-use ratio for chickpeas dropped in 2024/25 but shot higher in 2025/26. And the situation may not improve in 2026/27, even if yields drop back to average and acres slip a bit. Those heavy stocks carried over from 2025/26 will keep next year’s supplies very heavy.

That’s not to say the large supplies won’t allow prices to improve at all. We’ve already seen some gains in pea prices (even before China’s reentry into the market) and red lentil bids are starting to edge higher as well. Rather, the heaviness will limit the potential gains that tend to show up seasonally (for some crops) in spring as well as price potential in 2026/27.

Pulse Market Insight provides market commentary from Chuck Penner of LeftField Commodity Research to help with pulse marketing decisions.

Chinese Pea Demand is Positive but Not the Cure-All

No question, the news that China is dropping its 100% import tariff on Canadian peas is positive for the market. At a time of year when pea exports are normally slowing, renewed shipments to China will keep peas flowing into the system, which will keep prices supported.

Early in 2026, average western Canadian bids for both yellow and green peas are up roughly 60 cents per bushel. We emphasize the word “average”, because some buyers have raised their bids considerably more while others haven’t responded as much. People who were expecting bids to spike following the Chinese tariff announcement are probably underwhelmed with this response, but there are a few reasons for the relatively modest gains.

For one thing, China has been able to access plenty of peas from Russia, which had a record 5.2 mln tonne crop in 2025/26. Even so, Canadian peas are still preferred due to consistency of quality, which should provide a boost in trade. Chinese pea inventories are currently low, which should also add to a solid recovery in Canadian exports.

So far in its 2025/26 Jun-May marketing year, China has imported an average of 175,000 tonnes per month (with Russia as the main origin), which would mean a full-year import program of 2.1 mln tonnes. That said, the drop in pea prices closer to a Chinese corn/soymeal feed value suggests more peas will be imported for the feed channel, in addition to the food and fractionation industry, which could add another 300-400,000 tonnes of imports over the next few months. Under this scenario, Canadian peas would likely supply the food/fractionation demand while Russian peas are imported for the feed market.

The tariffs aren’t scheduled to drop until March 1, but peas are being assembled ahead of time for export shipments. Even so, the stronger demand pull will be more noticeable in the coming weeks, which should allow bids to firm up a bit more. Keep in mind, stronger prices are typical at this time of year, with seasonal highs for both yellow and green peas in the March-May timeframe.

Unfortunately, Canadian pea exports to China will only be tariff-free for the last five months of the 2025/26 marketing year, not enough time to draw down supplies in a big way. While the increased exports will be helpful, they won’t be able to completely cure the heavy supply situation facing the pea market.

Our estimate of 2025/26 yellow pea supplies is 3.6 mln tonnes and even with increased shipments to China, full-year exports will still end up somewhere around 2.0 mln tonnes. That leaves more than enough yellow peas for feed and seed use, while still boosting ending stocks. It’s a similar picture for green (and minor) peas, with supplies around 850,000 tonnes compared to our export forecast of 400,000 tonnes. That will leave those ending stocks also at multiyear highs.

The bottom line is that while the resumption of pea exports to China is a good thing, it isn’t a quick fix, mainly because of this year’s big increase in Canadian supplies. But there is room for longer-term optimism. If Canadian farmers trim seeded acreage a bit and yields drop back to average, the 2026/27 crop will automatically be smaller. And if China and India don’t increase tariffs in 2026/27 (fingers crossed), a full year of demand from these two major buyers will certainly help draw down supplies and result in a more balanced market.

Pulse Market Insight provides market commentary from Chuck Penner of LeftField Commodity Research to help with pulse marketing decisions.

Good News for Pea Markets

The recent announcement that China will drop its import tariffs on Canadian peas was very welcome, although not a complete surprise. Typically, trade agreements are worked out ahead of the official trade mission, with politicians mainly there for the announcements and publicity. The odds were high that something positive was going to happen; it just wasn’t clear what or when.

A day or two before the announcement, we started hearing that some farmers with production contracts for maple and green peas were being called to start hauling. Clearly, buyers were already betting on a breakthrough for pea exports to China.

Those who might have expected a sharp spike in prices on the heels of this announcement are probably a bit disappointed by the size of the market’s reaction. Keep in mind, the scale of the chart below tends to downplay the latest changes. The response seems to vary between buyers; those with immediate sales to China showed larger gains.

We also noticed a larger response in maple pea bids than greens and yellows. In the past week, the average maple pea bid rose 75 cents per bushel, while the prairie-wide bid for greens was up 25 cents and yellows closer to 20 cents per bushel. It’s not that surprising that maple peas showed the biggest early reaction as it’s the market portion in which Canada and China are most interdependent.

Canadian export data this year is delayed more than usual but in the first quarter of 2025/26, exports of green and “other” (mostly maple) peas were only about half of the 5-year average, which reflects the impact of China’s import tariffs. At the same time, yellow pea exports were only 9% behind average, with India and Bangladesh picking up the slack. It’s also worth noting that Canada exported 77,000 tonnes of peas (mainly yellows) to China in October.

The drop in Chinese tariffs won’t take effect until March 1, but peas still need to be assembled for those shipments, in addition to the regular pea shipments to other destinations. These extra volumes should result in stronger bids as more peas need to be drawn into the export pipeline. That said, it won’t likely be a runaway rally, for a few reasons.

For one thing, farmers had contracted large volumes of green and maple peas last spring. Because there hasn’t been strong movement of those classes until now, these inventories are still waiting to enter the export channel before more uncontracted supplies are needed. That’s not so much the case for yellow peas, which have been moving to other destinations.

Secondly, the 2025/26 marketing year is already half over and the fall export surge is in the rearview mirror. China has been buying steady volumes of peas from other countries, including Russia, the US, Argentina and a few others. That’s not to say Chinese buyers are sitting on large supplies of peas. Inventory data shows stocks of peas (mainly yellows) in Chinese warehouses are currently at a multiyear low and will need to be replenished, indicating imports will need to pick up somewhat.

Upside potential could also be limited by large supplies of peas in Canada and other exporters, particularly Russia. Competition from Russian peas will act as a governor on prices in Canada, especially for yellow peas. And as bids start to firm up in western Canada, farmers will likely use the opportunity to empty a few bins, thus limiting the gains. Canadian pea supplies expanded by 1.1 mln tonnes in 2025/26 and even if exports to China reach 500,000 tonnes (versus 732,000 tonnes in 2024/25), inventories aren’t going to run low, by any means.

Even though the market response may not be huge and enthusiasm might need to be tempered, this trade agreement is still very good news. Compared to the gloomy outlook earlier, freer trade means more of the big 2025 crop will be able to find a home. More demand is always better than less.

Pulse Market Insight provides market commentary from Chuck Penner of LeftField Commodity Research to help with pulse marketing decisions.

Big Risks Dampen Price Signals for 2026 Crop

This is the time of year when new-crop bids for pulses usually start showing up, but not always. It’s not just the actual price that signals how urgently buyers are looking to lock in acres; the timing of new-crop bids is also an indicator.

For example, I recall years when new-crop bids for peas or lentils already started to show up in October, almost a year before the next crop is harvested. That happened when pea and lentil supplies were very short and importers wanted to ensure they would have access to next year’s crops.

In general though, the first new-crop bids are often seen in late December or early January. One rule of thumb some people use is the Saskatoon Crop Production Show in mid-January as the “real start” of the contracting season. But this year, it seems that new-crop bids are even scarcer than usual, with a few possible reasons.

The first is that overseas buyers aren’t very concerned about locking in next year’s supplies. Big 2025 pulse crops in Canada and elsewhere have created a general feeling of heaviness in the market, reducing the sense of urgency. This also means 2025/26 ending stocks will be historically large; in some cases, record high. This means that even if acres and production are reduced in 2026, next year’s supplies could remain comfortable.

In addition, pulse production has expanded in several other countries that have become larger export competitors with Canada. Importers have more options and aren’t as dependent on Canadian production as in the past. Thus, there’s less concern about having to “buy acres” in western Canada.

The added element this year is the ongoing risk of trade actions that could cause sharp changes in pulse markets. In the past 12 months, import tariffs were imposed on peas by Canada’s two largest customers with a large impact on prices. More Indian tariffs on lentil imports are possible in the coming months. Of course, reduced or eliminated tariffs are also a possibility, but the odds of that type of positive development are very hard to gauge. In any case, the risks of a large swing in the market could be discouraging traders from issuing new-crop bids.

At the very least, the extra caution would mean a larger than usual discount for new-crop bids. As a result, when new-crop prices are released, they won’t likely be very attractive to farmers. Not wanting to issue unappealing bids may also cause buyers to hold off. Weak prices also mean there won’t be a lot of forward contracting activity this spring.

And in fact, it’s probably a good idea for farmers to be cautious about contracting the 2026 crop. Over the years, new-crop bids for most (but not all) crops tend to improve as the contracting season goes on. The chart above shows the average of old-crop and new-crop yellow pea bids from the last 10 years. Over that time, the most cautious new-crop bids have tended to occur early in the calendar year and improve as the season progresses. While it’s not a guarantee for 2026, it may not be a bad idea for farmers to remain patient.

Pulse Market Insight provides market commentary from Chuck Penner of LeftField Commodity Research to help with pulse marketing decisions.