Smaller Pulse Crops Should Support the 2026/27 Price Outlook

The combination of reduced acreage and lower yields than last year mean smaller pulse crops in 2026. The drop in production should be no surprise, especially since it would be difficult to repeat the very high yields of 2025. And together with positive signals for export demand, the smaller crops will support prices in 2026/27. The only fly in the ointment will be the large old-crop supplies left over at the end of 2025/26.

The StatsCan 2026 yield estimate for peas came in at 40.6 bu/acre, compared to 42.3 bu/acre last year. That’s also close to yields reported by Alberta Ag and Sask Ag in recent crop reports. Not all the crop has been harvested yet, but the yield is likely close to reality. This puts the 2026 pea crop at 3.26 mln tonnes, 675,000 tonnes less than last year. Based on the acreage breakdown, yellow pea production would drop a bit more than greens.

The problem in the pea market is that the carryover from 2025/26 was record large, which essentially offsets the drop in production and leaves supplies almost the same as 2025/26. The good news is that demand for yellow peas is expected to be very strong, with both India and China both in the market while Russia is facing shipping difficulties. That will have a bigger price impact on yellows than greens, but bids for both are already starting to respond.

The lentil yield estimate from StatsCan dropped sharply to 1,415 lb/acre from last year’s high of 1,722 lb/acre, although that’s still above average. When the 18% yield decline is combined with 11% fewer acres, the 2026 lentil crop would be 900,000 tonnes (27%) smaller than last year. Just like peas, the old-crop carryover for lentils is record large and 2026/27 supplies are only 150,000 tonnes less than the year before. And small green lentil supplies are particularly heavy.

The lentil situation is also similar to peas in that demand is expected to be stronger in 2026/27. A lot of that outlook is based on expectations that India will be a larger buyer of both red and green lentils, but other destinations should also take sizable volumes. The main check on Canadian exports, particularly reds, is the record crop in Australia.

Seeded area of chickpeas was only slightly lower in 2026 but the StatsCan yield of 1,691 lb/acre is 14% lower than last year at 1,970 lb/acre. The result is a 2026/27 chickpea crop of 400,000 tonnes, 80,000 tonnes less than last year. But following the common theme, old-crop carryover is very large and would more than wipe out the impact of the smaller crop. Of course, for chickpeas, all this depends on getting chickpeas off the field, a serious challenge. The chickpea outlook is also similar to peas and lentils in that export demand should be even larger than the record program of 2025/26.

Just like other pulses, dry bean acreage declined in 2026/27, although yields could be slightly higher. The StatsCan production estimate of 355,000 tonnes is 19% smaller than last year, but more importantly, the US crop is also expected to drop sharply, with black and pinto bean production falling the most. The dry bean market is already rallying.

Pulse Market Insight provides market commentary from Chuck Penner of LeftField Commodity Research to help with pulse marketing decisions.

Black Sea Disruptions Shift Pulse Demand Toward Canada

Over the past several years, Russia has grown into one of Canada’s largest competitors in pulse markets, especially for yellow peas into China and India, along with growing volumes of lentils and chickpeas moving into Turkey and South Asia. That’s what makes the current barriers to shipping out of the Black Sea region so important for the year ahead. The situation could change quickly, but for now the disruptions are limiting movement from two major exporters at the very time importers are lining up new-crop coverage. The early market signals suggest that demand is starting to shift toward Canada.

The disruptions are landing in a year when pea supplies were already tightening. Production among major exporters is forecast just under 10.0 mln tonnes, down almost 1.5 mln tonnes from last year’s peak, with the largest declines in Canada and Russia. Effective export availability will shrink even more than the production numbers suggest: France has become a much smaller exporter in recent years, US volumes are limited by changes to food aid policy, and Australia typically ships less than half of its modest pea crop. Take Black Sea movement out of that picture, even partially, and the remaining exportable supplies of yellow peas become much more concentrated in western Canada.

The clearest signal is coming from India. Yellow pea prices in Mumbai jumped more than US$50 per tonne in late August to their highest levels since mid-2024, with Kanpur values following. Notably, other Indian pulse prices haven’t moved the same way, which suggests this isn’t about India’s own crops – it looks like concern about access to supplies from Canada and Russia, the two origins that dominate its pea imports. China tells a similar story: it imported nearly 300,000 tonnes of peas in July, double the 5-year average for the month, with Russia the largest origin at just over 151,000 tonnes and Canada close behind. If Black Sea movement stays constrained, a large share of that Russian business will be looking for a new home.

The effects reach beyond peas. Kazakhstan, which ships pulses through some of the same corridors, exported a record 409,700 tonnes of lentils in 2025/26, mostly to Türkiye and China, and its 2026 acreage is reported lower.

For chickpeas, difficulties moving Russian supplies into South Asia could redirect some of Pakistan’s import requirements, at a record pace so far in 2026. Pakistan’s largest sources are Australia (desis) and Russia (small calibre kabulis) and restricted supplies could move more demand toward Canadian kabulis, particularly the smaller calibres.

A few words of caution are in order. Shipping barriers can ease as quickly as they appear, and Russian product has a way of finding other corridors, at least for some of its tonnage. It’s also worth remembering that for peas, the yellow pea market will see a greater impact than greens or maples. And with harvest running well behind normal across the prairies, quality is still a question mark for all pulse crops.

For growers, the setup leans supportive. Bids for most pulses appear to have put in their seasonal lows, and the combination of smaller Canadian supplies and import demand rerouted away from the Black Sea gives the usual postharvest recovery extra fuel, particularly for yellow peas. Keep in mind that in 2025/26 (without these friendly factors), the move in yellow pea bids from the September low to the spring high was nearly $2.00 per bushel. Red lentils could also see some support, especially if Indian monsoons don’t improve and South Asian buying stays strong, although the big Aussie crop will keep a lid on prices. The heavier-supplied classes, green peas and green lentils alike, will still find rallies capped by carryover, so periods of strength remain selling opportunities. Watching how the Black Sea situation develops will be worth the effort this fall, as it has become a bigger swing factor in the pulse price outlook.

Pulse Market Insight provides market commentary from Chuck Penner of LeftField Commodity Research to help with pulse marketing decisions.

Harvest Opens on a Split Pulse Market

The pulse harvest is finally rolling in western Canada, but at a slower-than-usual pace. As of August 17, only 18% of the Saskatchewan pea crop was in the bin, similar to last year but far behind the 10-year average of 55%, with lentils just 13% combined. The late start isn’t a problem yet, but it does mean the crop needs a stretch of favourable weather to avoid quality issues. Early reports add another wrinkle: pea yields are coming in lighter than the good-looking crop stands suggested. Harvest still has to move north before the yield debate can be settled. For now, average yields remain the working assumption.

What makes this year unusual is how differently the two halves of the pea market are setting up. Based on an average yield, the yellow pea crop would be roughly 30% smaller than last year, and total yellow supplies would drop by about 650,000 tonnes, tightening the balance sheet considerably. Green peas are the flipside; even with a smaller crop, the heavy old-crop carryover pushes green (and minor) pea supplies to nearly 900,000 tonnes. Even an optimistic export program would leave ending stocks at a multiyear high. Recent US acreage data tells the same story, with American growers cutting yellow pea acres 12% while expanding greens by 20%.

Lentils are following the same script. Canadian red lentil production is expected to fall about 10% this year, which would bring red supplies down to well-balanced levels, while the green lentil classes remain buried under carryover stocks even though their production shrank the most. One caution on the red side of the ledger: combined red lentil production from Canada and Australia could reach 4.0 mln tonnes or more, as a big Australian crop offsets the smaller Canadian one. That keeps South Asian demand at the centre of the price outlook.

Of course, supplies are only one side of the story. On the demand front, export prospects are positive for all pulses, but there are differences by class. As mentioned in previous reports, the outlook for yellow peas and all classes of lentils largely hinges on the monsoon situation in India. Indian pulse imports have been steady during the summer, which could be a good sign for the months ahead. August and September rains still matter the most, both for the kharif crop and for the rabi plantings of chickpeas, lentils and peas that follow. As of mid-August, nationwide monsoon rains are 13% lower than the long-term average. For yellow and green peas, China is the other major destination, with some positive signals emerging.

This is a year to know which side of the split each crop sits on. Prices for all pulses are expected to recover from the harvest lows, but for yellow peas and red lentils, tightening Canadian supplies and strong export prospects argue for more patience. For green peas and green lentils, the large carryover will cap rallies and periods of strength deserve attention as selling opportunities.

Pulse Market Insight provides market commentary from Chuck Penner of LeftField Commodity Research to help with pulse marketing decisions.

Faltering Monsoon Is Central to the Pulse Outlook

For pulse markets, few things matter more than the Indian monsoon and this year’s version has been erratic. June rainfall came in well below average, and while a burst of heavier rain in late June and early July briefly narrowed the gap, volumes dropped off sharply again right in the middle of the main planting window. Rainfall amounts picked up again in late July, but the cumulative monsoon rainfall is still running 16% below the long-term average. There’s still a lot of monsoon season left, but the longer the shortfall persists, the more it matters for both of India’s pulse crops — the kharif crop being seeded now and the rabi crop that follows this winter.

The uneven rains are showing up clearly in seeding progress. Indian farmers picked up the pace when moisture improved, but the most recent weekly data still show planting of tur (pigeon peas) 11% behind last year and 10% below the average pace. Some of that ground can still be made up, but the planting window is in its later stages. Tur is the kharif pulse that matters most for Canadian growers, as imported green lentils can be used as a substitute.

India is a large country, and it’s also important where the rains are (or are not) falling. In the five main tur-producing states, monsoon rains since June 1 range from 1% above the long-term average to 35% below average, so the situation is hardly uniform.

The monsoon’s influence doesn’t end with the kharif crop; those same rains recharge the soil moisture that support the winter rabi crop, which includes chickpeas, lentils and peas, even more important to Canadian farmers. A deficient monsoon, especially later in the season, would raise the stakes for rabi plantings this fall, stretching the supply question across both halves of India’s pulse production.

So far, Indian markets have given a mixed response. Desi chickpea prices moved up off their earlier lows in a couple of stages and are now their highest since early 2025, with solid upward momentum. Tur prices, somewhat surprisingly, haven’t shown a meaningful reaction yet, and yellow pea and red lentil values have been similarly quiet. That muted response likely reflects the comfortable supplies India has carried into this season but if the rains don’t improve, a sharper price response should be expected.

While it’s still too early to write off India’s kharif or rabi crops, there are several possible trade implications for Canadian pulses. India’s imports of green lentils can vary quite a bit from year to year, but a smaller tur crop would add another layer of demand and provide some relief for burdensome supplies. For other pulses, particularly red lentils and yellow peas, the trade response would likely occur later once the rabi crop outlook becomes clearer late in 2026. If the late monsoons in August and September remain deficient, the rabi crop will face large challenges. Depending on the severity, the Indian government could decide to lower its tariffs on pea and lentil imports, currently at 30% and 10% respectively, which would spur further imports.

None of this is locked in. Monsoons have recovered in the second half of the season before, and a strong finish to the rains would take much of this risk off the table. But a key factor for pulse markets — fewer western Canadian acres — now has a faltering monsoon added to the outlook. Prices in western Canada haven’t responded yet, but patience remains a sensible marketing stance.

Pulse Market Insight provides market commentary from Chuck Penner of LeftField Commodity Research to help with pulse marketing decisions.

Fewer Pulse Acres Add a New Twist to a Soggy Season

Leading up to StatsCan’s June acreage estimates, we thought there could be a few surprises in the numbers. There were, and for pulse markets, most of them landed on the friendly side. The survey showed fewer pulse acres than last year across the board and, in most cases, fewer than StatsCan’s March intentions. Layer on the excess moisture still hanging over large parts of the prairies and the supply picture for 2026/27 is starting to tighten in a hurry.

Peas provided the biggest surprise. Instead of the small bump in acreage some were expecting, StatsCan reported 2026 seeded area at 3.03 million acres, 14% less than last year and a bit below its March forecast. The breakdown by type was even more interesting. It would have been reasonable to expect green and minor classes to lose the most ground after their relatively weak price performance, but yellow pea area actually took the biggest hit, down 16% at 2.31 million acres, while green pea acres slipped 10% and “other” classes were up slightly.

The implications are mostly about yellow peas. A considerably smaller crop would actually force export volumes to be rationed at the same time as demand from China and India is expected to strengthen. That kind of squeeze tends to produce a sharper price response, and it gives yellow peas considerable upside potential for 2026/27, with green pea supplies still comfortable enough to keep that market on a steadier path.

The lentil story rhymes with peas, with one important difference by type. Total lentil area came in at 3.90 million acres, down 11% from last year and below the March forecast. Red lentil acres actually increased 14% to 2.44 million acres, returning to a more normal share of total lentil area, while the reductions were concentrated in the green classes: large greens down about a quarter, small greens down more than half, and other minor classes down about 30%.

Hanging over all these numbers is the moisture situation. Soil moisture across large parts of the pea and lentil growing areas is running well above normal, and pulses are more vulnerable than most crops to wet feet, with root rot and other diseases thriving in these conditions. To be clear, plenty of areas still look very good and it will take time before the damage elsewhere can be measured. But yield estimates are now tilted to the downside, with implications for both quantity and quality.

The same StatsCan report trimmed chickpea and dry bean acres too. Chickpea area was marginally below last year, but the market is still working through a very large old-crop carryover, so total supplies will stay comfortable and the price response should be muted. Dry bean area dropped 21%, with coloured bean classes down about 30% while white bean acres were slightly higher. Combined with the smallest US dry bean area in decades, that sets the stage for firmer new-crop bean bids, especially for blacks and pintos.

Pulse prices in western Canada haven’t yet responded to any of this, with old-crop and new-crop bids still drifting sideways to lower in line with their usual seasonal patterns. But the ingredients for a firmer market are stacking up: fewer acres, genuine yield risk and demand question marks that lean friendly. For growers who can manage the risk, patience on further new-crop sales remains a sensible stance. Prices typically recover once harvest gets underway, and this year’s fundamentals suggest the rebound could come with some extra force, particularly for yellow peas and red lentils.

Pulse Market Insight provides market commentary from Chuck Penner of LeftField Commodity Research to help with pulse marketing decisions.