Black Sea Disruptions Shift Pulse Demand Toward Canada

Over the past several years, Russia has grown into one of Canada’s largest competitors in pulse markets, especially for yellow peas into China and India, along with growing volumes of lentils and chickpeas moving into Turkey and South Asia. That’s what makes the current barriers to shipping out of the Black Sea region so important for the year ahead. The situation could change quickly, but for now the disruptions are limiting movement from two major exporters at the very time importers are lining up new-crop coverage. The early market signals suggest that demand is starting to shift toward Canada.

The disruptions are landing in a year when pea supplies were already tightening. Production among major exporters is forecast just under 10.0 mln tonnes, down almost 1.5 mln tonnes from last year’s peak, with the largest declines in Canada and Russia. Effective export availability will shrink even more than the production numbers suggest: France has become a much smaller exporter in recent years, US volumes are limited by changes to food aid policy, and Australia typically ships less than half of its modest pea crop. Take Black Sea movement out of that picture, even partially, and the remaining exportable supplies of yellow peas become much more concentrated in western Canada.

The clearest signal is coming from India. Yellow pea prices in Mumbai jumped more than US$50 per tonne in late August to their highest levels since mid-2024, with Kanpur values following. Notably, other Indian pulse prices haven’t moved the same way, which suggests this isn’t about India’s own crops – it looks like concern about access to supplies from Canada and Russia, the two origins that dominate its pea imports. China tells a similar story: it imported nearly 300,000 tonnes of peas in July, double the 5-year average for the month, with Russia the largest origin at just over 151,000 tonnes and Canada close behind. If Black Sea movement stays constrained, a large share of that Russian business will be looking for a new home.

The effects reach beyond peas. Kazakhstan, which ships pulses through some of the same corridors, exported a record 409,700 tonnes of lentils in 2025/26, mostly to Türkiye and China, and its 2026 acreage is reported lower.

For chickpeas, difficulties moving Russian supplies into South Asia could redirect some of Pakistan’s import requirements, at a record pace so far in 2026. Pakistan’s largest sources are Australia (desis) and Russia (small calibre kabulis) and restricted supplies could move more demand toward Canadian kabulis, particularly the smaller calibres.

A few words of caution are in order. Shipping barriers can ease as quickly as they appear, and Russian product has a way of finding other corridors, at least for some of its tonnage. It’s also worth remembering that for peas, the yellow pea market will see a greater impact than greens or maples. And with harvest running well behind normal across the prairies, quality is still a question mark for all pulse crops.

For growers, the setup leans supportive. Bids for most pulses appear to have put in their seasonal lows, and the combination of smaller Canadian supplies and import demand rerouted away from the Black Sea gives the usual postharvest recovery extra fuel, particularly for yellow peas. Keep in mind that in 2025/26 (without these friendly factors), the move in yellow pea bids from the September low to the spring high was nearly $2.00 per bushel. Red lentils could also see some support, especially if Indian monsoons don’t improve and South Asian buying stays strong, although the big Aussie crop will keep a lid on prices. The heavier-supplied classes, green peas and green lentils alike, will still find rallies capped by carryover, so periods of strength remain selling opportunities. Watching how the Black Sea situation develops will be worth the effort this fall, as it has become a bigger swing factor in the pulse price outlook.

Pulse Market Insight provides market commentary from Chuck Penner of LeftField Commodity Research to help with pulse marketing decisions.

Harvest Opens on a Split Pulse Market

The pulse harvest is finally rolling in western Canada, but at a slower-than-usual pace. As of August 17, only 18% of the Saskatchewan pea crop was in the bin, similar to last year but far behind the 10-year average of 55%, with lentils just 13% combined. The late start isn’t a problem yet, but it does mean the crop needs a stretch of favourable weather to avoid quality issues. Early reports add another wrinkle: pea yields are coming in lighter than the good-looking crop stands suggested. Harvest still has to move north before the yield debate can be settled. For now, average yields remain the working assumption.

What makes this year unusual is how differently the two halves of the pea market are setting up. Based on an average yield, the yellow pea crop would be roughly 30% smaller than last year, and total yellow supplies would drop by about 650,000 tonnes, tightening the balance sheet considerably. Green peas are the flipside; even with a smaller crop, the heavy old-crop carryover pushes green (and minor) pea supplies to nearly 900,000 tonnes. Even an optimistic export program would leave ending stocks at a multiyear high. Recent US acreage data tells the same story, with American growers cutting yellow pea acres 12% while expanding greens by 20%.

Lentils are following the same script. Canadian red lentil production is expected to fall about 10% this year, which would bring red supplies down to well-balanced levels, while the green lentil classes remain buried under carryover stocks even though their production shrank the most. One caution on the red side of the ledger: combined red lentil production from Canada and Australia could reach 4.0 mln tonnes or more, as a big Australian crop offsets the smaller Canadian one. That keeps South Asian demand at the centre of the price outlook.

Of course, supplies are only one side of the story. On the demand front, export prospects are positive for all pulses, but there are differences by class. As mentioned in previous reports, the outlook for yellow peas and all classes of lentils largely hinges on the monsoon situation in India. Indian pulse imports have been steady during the summer, which could be a good sign for the months ahead. August and September rains still matter the most, both for the kharif crop and for the rabi plantings of chickpeas, lentils and peas that follow. As of mid-August, nationwide monsoon rains are 13% lower than the long-term average. For yellow and green peas, China is the other major destination, with some positive signals emerging.

This is a year to know which side of the split each crop sits on. Prices for all pulses are expected to recover from the harvest lows, but for yellow peas and red lentils, tightening Canadian supplies and strong export prospects argue for more patience. For green peas and green lentils, the large carryover will cap rallies and periods of strength deserve attention as selling opportunities.

Pulse Market Insight provides market commentary from Chuck Penner of LeftField Commodity Research to help with pulse marketing decisions.

Faltering Monsoon Is Central to the Pulse Outlook

For pulse markets, few things matter more than the Indian monsoon and this year’s version has been erratic. June rainfall came in well below average, and while a burst of heavier rain in late June and early July briefly narrowed the gap, volumes dropped off sharply again right in the middle of the main planting window. Rainfall amounts picked up again in late July, but the cumulative monsoon rainfall is still running 16% below the long-term average. There’s still a lot of monsoon season left, but the longer the shortfall persists, the more it matters for both of India’s pulse crops — the kharif crop being seeded now and the rabi crop that follows this winter.

The uneven rains are showing up clearly in seeding progress. Indian farmers picked up the pace when moisture improved, but the most recent weekly data still show planting of tur (pigeon peas) 11% behind last year and 10% below the average pace. Some of that ground can still be made up, but the planting window is in its later stages. Tur is the kharif pulse that matters most for Canadian growers, as imported green lentils can be used as a substitute.

India is a large country, and it’s also important where the rains are (or are not) falling. In the five main tur-producing states, monsoon rains since June 1 range from 1% above the long-term average to 35% below average, so the situation is hardly uniform.

The monsoon’s influence doesn’t end with the kharif crop; those same rains recharge the soil moisture that support the winter rabi crop, which includes chickpeas, lentils and peas, even more important to Canadian farmers. A deficient monsoon, especially later in the season, would raise the stakes for rabi plantings this fall, stretching the supply question across both halves of India’s pulse production.

So far, Indian markets have given a mixed response. Desi chickpea prices moved up off their earlier lows in a couple of stages and are now their highest since early 2025, with solid upward momentum. Tur prices, somewhat surprisingly, haven’t shown a meaningful reaction yet, and yellow pea and red lentil values have been similarly quiet. That muted response likely reflects the comfortable supplies India has carried into this season but if the rains don’t improve, a sharper price response should be expected.

While it’s still too early to write off India’s kharif or rabi crops, there are several possible trade implications for Canadian pulses. India’s imports of green lentils can vary quite a bit from year to year, but a smaller tur crop would add another layer of demand and provide some relief for burdensome supplies. For other pulses, particularly red lentils and yellow peas, the trade response would likely occur later once the rabi crop outlook becomes clearer late in 2026. If the late monsoons in August and September remain deficient, the rabi crop will face large challenges. Depending on the severity, the Indian government could decide to lower its tariffs on pea and lentil imports, currently at 30% and 10% respectively, which would spur further imports.

None of this is locked in. Monsoons have recovered in the second half of the season before, and a strong finish to the rains would take much of this risk off the table. But a key factor for pulse markets — fewer western Canadian acres — now has a faltering monsoon added to the outlook. Prices in western Canada haven’t responded yet, but patience remains a sensible marketing stance.

Pulse Market Insight provides market commentary from Chuck Penner of LeftField Commodity Research to help with pulse marketing decisions.

Fewer Pulse Acres Add a New Twist to a Soggy Season

Leading up to StatsCan’s June acreage estimates, we thought there could be a few surprises in the numbers. There were, and for pulse markets, most of them landed on the friendly side. The survey showed fewer pulse acres than last year across the board and, in most cases, fewer than StatsCan’s March intentions. Layer on the excess moisture still hanging over large parts of the prairies and the supply picture for 2026/27 is starting to tighten in a hurry.

Peas provided the biggest surprise. Instead of the small bump in acreage some were expecting, StatsCan reported 2026 seeded area at 3.03 million acres, 14% less than last year and a bit below its March forecast. The breakdown by type was even more interesting. It would have been reasonable to expect green and minor classes to lose the most ground after their relatively weak price performance, but yellow pea area actually took the biggest hit, down 16% at 2.31 million acres, while green pea acres slipped 10% and “other” classes were up slightly.

The implications are mostly about yellow peas. A considerably smaller crop would actually force export volumes to be rationed at the same time as demand from China and India is expected to strengthen. That kind of squeeze tends to produce a sharper price response, and it gives yellow peas considerable upside potential for 2026/27, with green pea supplies still comfortable enough to keep that market on a steadier path.

The lentil story rhymes with peas, with one important difference by type. Total lentil area came in at 3.90 million acres, down 11% from last year and below the March forecast. Red lentil acres actually increased 14% to 2.44 million acres, returning to a more normal share of total lentil area, while the reductions were concentrated in the green classes: large greens down about a quarter, small greens down more than half, and other minor classes down about 30%.

Hanging over all these numbers is the moisture situation. Soil moisture across large parts of the pea and lentil growing areas is running well above normal, and pulses are more vulnerable than most crops to wet feet, with root rot and other diseases thriving in these conditions. To be clear, plenty of areas still look very good and it will take time before the damage elsewhere can be measured. But yield estimates are now tilted to the downside, with implications for both quantity and quality.

The same StatsCan report trimmed chickpea and dry bean acres too. Chickpea area was marginally below last year, but the market is still working through a very large old-crop carryover, so total supplies will stay comfortable and the price response should be muted. Dry bean area dropped 21%, with coloured bean classes down about 30% while white bean acres were slightly higher. Combined with the smallest US dry bean area in decades, that sets the stage for firmer new-crop bean bids, especially for blacks and pintos.

Pulse prices in western Canada haven’t yet responded to any of this, with old-crop and new-crop bids still drifting sideways to lower in line with their usual seasonal patterns. But the ingredients for a firmer market are stacking up: fewer acres, genuine yield risk and demand question marks that lean friendly. For growers who can manage the risk, patience on further new-crop sales remains a sensible stance. Prices typically recover once harvest gets underway, and this year’s fundamentals suggest the rebound could come with some extra force, particularly for yellow peas and red lentils.

Pulse Market Insight provides market commentary from Chuck Penner of LeftField Commodity Research to help with pulse marketing decisions.

Western Canadian Weather Roller Coaster Adds Uncertainty

It’s not even the end of June, but the weather in western Canada has already experienced more twists and turns in 2026 than in recent memory, with the biggest changes occurring in the western prairies. It was only a month ago that soil moisture maps for Alberta looked mostly orange and red and there were widespread concerns about possible drought. Now, the moisture maps for Alberta are mainly green and blue, a very quick turnaround.

Various reports from numerous locations show a wide range of crop conditions as of late June. We’re hearing that large parts of Alberta, mostly in central and southern regions, are looking quite positive. Other areas, particularly in the western and northern Peace River region, are still dry. At the other end of the spectrum, reports from northeast and northwest Alberta are telling us about standing water and flooded crops. Other parts of the prairies are experiencing very variable conditions, from “great” to “ugly”.

Most often in western Canada, the biggest problems facing the crop are caused by dry conditions but so far in 2026, the opposite is true. And with more rain on the way, areas that are already too wet won’t be seeing any relief and it may get worse. Which brings us to pulse crops.

Excess moisture is a big problem for all crops, reducing yields and lowering quality, but pulses are even more susceptible to wet conditions and high humidity. Root rot and other diseases flourish under these conditions and have been serious issues in the past, taking their toll on pea, lentil and chickpea crops.

Of course, it’s too soon to make any reliable crop forecasts, either in terms of acreage or yields. StatsCan will release its updated acreage estimates at the end of June, based on a farmer survey, and there could be a few surprises in those numbers that affect crop size. Keep in mind though, planting delays in Saskatchewan and drowned-out low spots in Alberta will trim a few acres from the total. Yields are another question entirely. Last year’s exceptionally high yields will be difficult to repeat, especially if conditions remain wet.

This uncertainty about acres and yields could keep farmers on the marketing sidelines, especially those in areas where conditions are the wettest and the crop outlook is the diciest. Even though forward pricing is an effective risk management practice, holding back on further sales could be a solid marketing decision at this stage of the year.  Besides the risk of lower production, historical patterns show that patience could be rewarded. Old-crop bids for yellow peas normally start declining in early June and new-crop bids turn down toward the end of the month. A similar pattern applies for green peas, red lentils and green lentils.

What this chart doesn’t show is that once the harvest is underway, pulse prices tend to start recovering. The size and speed of the rebound varies from year to year, depending on the outcome of Canadian crops, but also due to factors affecting demand. For 2026/27, the precarious situation in India could be the linchpin for pulse markets. With the uncertainties surrounding Canadian pulse crops, including the risk from excess moisture, and concerns about Indian pulse production, waiting on the sidelines to make sales for this year’s crop could turn into a wise choice.

Pulse Market Insight provides market commentary from Chuck Penner of LeftField Commodity Research to help with pulse marketing decisions.

Indian Monsoon Outcome Key for Pulse Outlooks

We think it’s important to not react too quickly to weather events, and particularly forecasts. For example, the crop outlook in western Canada has already made a number of sharp U-turns, and it’s only mid-June. As we get further into the growing season, outcomes will become more certain and the outlook will become clearer.

Even though we don’t want to bet too much on weather forecasts, there is a potential situation in India that certainly bears watching. Recently, the Indian Meteorology Department lowered its rain forecast for the southwest monsoon season to 90% of the long-term average, based on the potential for a large El Niño event. This was the lowest IMD monsoon forecast in at least 20 years. The actual monsoon performance doesn’t always line up with the IMD forecast, but the accuracy of its forecasts seems to be better in recent years.

While there’s plenty of uncertainty in the forecast, it’s worth noting that back in 2014/15 and 2015/16, when India went through two consecutive shortfalls, its pulse imports rose sharply. Large import volumes continued in the following two years and pulse production in Canada and elsewhere rose in response to the high prices. Eventually though, those large imports built up in Indian warehouses and the government imposed import restrictions which caused volumes (and prices) to drop sharply. That lasted until 2023/24, when monsoon rains were below average again and India’s government dropped its tariffs.

This brief history lesson suggests that if Indian monsoon rains are well below average in 2026/27, Indian import demand could rise considerably. Whether that includes a drop in import tariffs – currently 30% for peas and 10% for lentils – remains to be seen. To a large extent, tariff decisions depend on pulse prices within India. If prices rise in response to its smaller pulse crops, the Indian government could try to keep food prices under control by lowering tariffs and easing the way for imports.

If Indian monsoon rains are deficient, Canadian pulse prices could see some improvement. Looking back over the last 15 years, we see the response in Canadian pea and lentil bids in 2014/15 and 2015/16. Keep in mind, the Indian market was responding to two consecutive years of poor monsoon rains, not just one. Back then too, Canada dominated global pulse trade with a lot less competition from other pulse exporters, which added to the upside. After that though, the high prices caused pulse production to rise sharply in western Canada and other countries, which caused prices to cycle lower.

Of course, pulse prices are influenced by numerous factors, not just Indian trade. For example, the sharp rally in 2021/22 occurred when India was restricting pulse imports and was mostly driven by the drought in western Canada.

Overall, a shortfall in Indian monsoon rains should benefit Canadian pulse prices but in crop markets, there are no crystal balls and no sure things. While a marketing strategy for 2026/27 could include waiting to see how the Indian situation develops and delaying some sales until later in the year, it’s important (as always) not to put all the “marketing eggs” in one basket.

Pulse Market Insight provides market commentary from Chuck Penner of LeftField Commodity Research to help with pulse marketing decisions.